It
is fascinating how many untrue facts continue to circulate in our
society even though the truth can be found with just a few clicks of
a mouse.
For
instance, it is widely heard that President Bush lied about weapons
of mass destruction being in Iraq. But this is folly. Bush believed
Iraq had the weapons and acted on those beliefs. The fact that he
was wrong does not mean that he lied. But you hear this same untruth
over and over.
The
Great Depression is the most dreadful economic calamity to befall the
United States. At its worst, the unemployment rate reached 25% and
the economy shrank by 30%. The devastation to individuals and
families was gruesome.
It
has been 80 years now since the Great Depression, and while that
event is not completely understood we do know thatthe
stock market collapse in 1929 did not cause the Great Depression.
I
am currently reading a book about the year 1927, and the author in
passing made mention that in the 1920’s there was a bubble in
the stock market that collapsed in 1929, causing the Great
Depression. What?
It
literally takes two minutes (search Great Depression and Federal
Reserve) and read the introduction to the course the Fed has on the
Depression and you learn that this is not true.
Open
up high school text books and you can read the same garbage about the
cause of the Depression. The
stock market collapse of 1929 is flashy and dramatic, while the truth
is not quite so spectacular.
The
unemployment rate by year starting in 1929 is a follows:
1929 – 3%
1930 – 9%
1931 – 16%
1932 – 24%
Here
is the best explanation for the Great Depression.
There
was a collapse of the banking system in the United States. In 1930,
there was no deposit insurance and people would panic if they heard a
bank failed somewhere and run to their bank to get their money even
if their bank was completely sound (this is called contagion).
There
is a basic asymmetric information problem with banks. The people at
the bank know how sound the bank is but the public doesn’t
know. So it is rational for people to make a run on a bank since the
first in line will get their money while those later in line will not
get their money.
From
1925 to 1929, there were on average 650 banks that failed each year.
From 1930 to 1933, on average 2200 banks failed each year. The money
supply in the economy was shrinking fast so there was no cash around
to loan or borrow, companies went bankrupt and laid off employees,
and the economy shrank.
As
the economy shrank, there were fewer people able to buy goods, more
companies went under and it was a cycle into oblivion.
This
was not the Federal Bank’s best moment. They could have
prevented many of those banks from going under but were afraid that
if they loaned money to the banks that the bank would go under and
they would lose the money. The Fed shut the borrowing window to
troubled banks allowing them to go under.
In
1933, President Roosevelt created the requirement for banks to have
and provide deposit insurance (FDIC) and the banks finally stabilized
with almost no bank failures until the Savings & Loan crisis of
the 1980s.
We
have come close twice to having another collapse of the banking
system. One instance occurred in October 1987, when the stock market
dropped 23% in one day. The story about what almost happened except
for the intervening of the Fed is for another article, but we were
standing on the edge of a very steep cliff that week.
The
other was the recent crisis of 2008. Hopefully now you understand
the need for TARP and the way the Fed has continually pushed money
into the economy over the past five years. The past Fed Chair Ben
Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression and he was going to do
everything he could not to repeat the same mistakes.
TARP
pushed money back into the financial institutions, making sure they
had the liquidity to survive. So anytime you hear someone denigrate
TARP, remember the Depression.
Would
you be willing to risk another depression (the current economy is bad
enough) by eliminating a program that helped save our banks and has
been repaid with interest? What exactly was the downside to TARP?
Afraid the taxpayers were going to lose that money? That sounds
exactly like the Feds in 1930 and that attitude worked out just great
back then.
Another
reason given for the Depression is the passing of the Smoot-Hawley
Tariff Act. This law passed in 1930 (and bears the senator of Utah’s
name) put heavy tariffs on imported goods. Other countries
retaliated with their own tariffs, and global trade collapsed.
That
whole idea of creating tariffs so we can bring back all that
manufacturing from China, Japan, whatever, is always a loser for all
countries. The economic pie for everyone will shrink. This was a
contributing factor for the Depression and hurt the recovery.
The
least important factor is the stock market collapse of 1929. The
impact of the collapse was more emotional than material. It made
people question the economy and where it was headed but was not a
monetary cause for the Depression. The stock market collapse from
1987 was more dramatic than 1929, but because the fed acted
appropriately it had little effect.
There
is so much more about the Depression that is interesting. If there
is one thing you learn from this article I hope it is that you do not
get your economic ideas from talking heads on the television or radio
or from books or textbooks that do not take the time to do the
appropriate amount of research.
Economists
have studied the Great Depression for decades and still there are
areas of differing opinion about what happened in the 1930s.
Economics is hard and complex. During an economic crisis, how does a
person that only speaks in sound bites know what to do?
During
the last crisis I ignored everyone and went to see what Doug Diamond
had to say. Who is he? An economist at the University of Chicago
and probably the best expert on financial institutions. From what I
learned from reading his remarks it gave me a frame of reference that
was invaluable.
Now
you know the best explanation for what caused the Great Depression,
what we learned from it, and understand how that learned information
affects our current economic policies. Good luck trying to get
someone to accept a thorough explanation of the banking collapse when
“the stock market crash in 1929 caused the Depression” is
so catchy.
Adam Smith is obviously not the actual name of the author of this column. The real author has
worked for two Fortune 500 companies, one privately held company, and a public accounting
firm. His undergraduate degree was in accounting, and he earned an MBA for his graduate
degree. He also has completed coursework for a PhD. in finance. He continues to be employed
by one of the Fortune 500 companies.
The author grew up in the Washington D.C. area but also lived for several years in Arizona. He
currently resides with his family on the East Coast.
The author has held various callings in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.