Every
year or two, the U.S. public finances take center stage. We are
currently in one of those periods. Everyone in the media is talking
about the upcoming fiscal cliff and the negotiations between the
Republicans and Democrats about how to avoid going over the cliff.
The
fiscal cliff is very real, not one of those crises created by
politicians so they can create new departments or creates new laws
and regulations. It is important to first understand what makes this
cliff more like stepping off a cliff at the Grand Canyon as opposed
to a curb in your neighborhood.
At
the end of this year, all of the Bush tax cuts that were passed in
2001 will expire. In addition, there are tax increases on capital
gains and dividends. Also there are taxes associated with the
healthcare law that will go into effect. Not done yet with taxes.
Also, the two percent payroll tax reduction is going to expire at the
end of the year.
The
main point to understand is that there are a lot of taxes that are
going to be implemented at the end of the year. Money will be taken
from households and given to the government so there will be less
consumption from households.
At
the same time, government spending is scheduled to be cut in a
haphazard way, with major cuts in defense and education for example.
This reduction in spending was scheduled last year when the
government in Washington could not agree on how spending reductions
should be executed so they just put off making a tough decision until
after the election.
This
sequester (as called by the media) was never really meant to be
implemented. The reductions were purposely made so repulsive to both
political parties that they would force Congress and the White House
to negotiate before they were implemented. The main point here is
that the government is going to reduce their spending and thus reduce
government consumption.
In
addition to the above-mentioned tax increases and the spending
decreases, the long-term unemployment benefits are going to stop at
the end of the year for many laid-off workers. All of these points
together mean you have a serious financial problem.
The
nonpartisan estimated impact of going over the cliff would be a
recession and at least a million more people out of work.
Those
are the essentials to the fiscal cliff.
This
is just the kind of situation that economists will be researching and
writing articles about for decades, and I love to hear and read what
people are providing as solutions to the problem. Lately, there has
been one solution being brought up by both sides that I find very
disturbing. Way too many politicians and pundits are ready to go
over the cliff.
I
am not going to give the exact reasoning given by each side for why
they would be willing to over the cliff. The exact reasons do not
matter. They each believe that going over the cliff may give their
side an edge in perceptions by the people and then positive election
results in the next election cycle. They each are politically
motivated.
I
have been out of work before and nervous about how I would provide
for my family. I hurt inside for those 1,000,000 or more people that
will lose their jobs. I feel nothing but loathing for those that
view the cliff as a way to gain political advantage.
How
will you know whether a politician really cares about going over the
cliff? Here are the two big questions that have to be answered, one
on the right of the political spectrum and one on the left.
Is
the politician willing to have any increases in tax revenues? If the
answer is no, then they are willing to send the million people to the
unemployment line because any agreement will have to have some
revenue increases.
Is
the politician willing to make meaningful reductions in government
spending, including entitlements? If the answer is no, then they are
willing to send a million people to the unemployment line because any
agreement will have to have real spending cuts.
When
thinking about the economy, I support programs or policies that help
average people. I support free market capitalism because I believe
it provides the best chance for an economy to grow and people are
able to improve their economic position.
Our
politicians need to do the right thing. Going over the cliff is an
irresponsible economic decision and should not even be considered as
an option by either side. Just this once, could we get everyone in
Washington D.C. to act like an adult. One million people are
depending on it.
Adam Smith is obviously not the actual name of the author of this column. The real author has
worked for two Fortune 500 companies, one privately held company, and a public accounting
firm. His undergraduate degree was in accounting, and he earned an MBA for his graduate
degree. He also has completed coursework for a PhD. in finance. He continues to be employed
by one of the Fortune 500 companies.
The author grew up in the Washington D.C. area but also lived for several years in Arizona. He
currently resides with his family on the East Coast.
The author has held various callings in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.